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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple script. It commonly serves as a kind of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a direct path: the skipper who oversaw the largest turnaround receives the prize. However, it sparks an annual debate about expectations and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or merely the most shocking upset.

Yet this year's competition is distinctly different. The pool of nominees is exceptionally deep. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with reigning conference champions fading and recent strugglers rising together. Under an typical season, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. But in such a wild and thrilling season, he's up against five other elite candidates.

This is how the projected ballot could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right system, Williams has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent performance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an attack designed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a steady dose of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that frees wide receiver targets consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to conjure big plays from nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the building with the kind of hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a normal season, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. But this isn't a typical season!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for sustained winning. But he comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which was not a guarantee after his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching blend of youth and experience, Coen hired newbies. From the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

After an early hot start, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason setback caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the season in October. Instead, it made it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has regressed after that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him only one place ahead of other QBs.

Still